Monday, May 16, 2011

Richard Lukas & Peter Urbantschitsch vs. David Boldini & Hormoz Shahrokh Double Consulting

European Championship 2011 Velden
Double Consulting
Semi finals
9 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas&Peter Urbantschitch: 6,   David Boldini & Hormoz Shahrokh: 9



xg summery:
David Boldini-Hormoz Shahrokh Category Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschitsch
Expert (-0.0130) Total Error Advanced (-0.0161)
Expert (-0.0106) Checker Play Expert (-0.0107)
Advanced (-0.0214) Cube Play Casual Player (-0.0396)
6.5 Performance Rating 8.0

David Boldini-Hormoz Shahrokh Game Per Game Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschitsch
World Champ. (-0.0022) Game 1 Beginner (-0.0488)
World Champ. (-0.0030) Game 2 Expert (-0.0137)
World Champ. (-0.0019) Game 3 Beginner (-0.0480)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Game 4 Intermediate (-0.0344)
Expert (-0.0118) Game 5 World Champ. (+0.0000)
Advanced (-0.0220) Game 6 Wow! (+0.0016)
Intermediate (-0.0257) Game 7 World Class (-0.0088)
Advanced (-0.0165) Game 8 Intermediate (-0.0299)
Advanced (-0.0156) Game 9 World Champ. (-0.0043)
Advanced (-0.0186) Game 10 Intermediate (-0.0261)
Advanced (-0.0194) Game 11 World Champ. (-0.0007)
World Class (-0.0054) Game 12 World Class (-0.0073)
World Class (-0.0077) Game 13 Advanced (-0.0167)

Snowie summery:
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player David Boldini-Hormoz Shahrokhs Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschi
Rating advanced advanced
Overall 7,586 8,176
Checker play 5,026 4,096
Double 2,448 3,024
Take 0,112 1,055
Favorite
David Boldini-Hormoz Shahrokhs was 52,70% - 47,30% favorite.

The result of this analize suprised me a lot. after the match i thought it was a crazy unlucky loss but i have to admit that theyr win was just ok and deserved. both of us played a good performance but boldini and shahrokh played a bit better then us. listening to all the comments of boldini during the match was very funny.
very often during the match he insisted in the right move but you could understand about the way he explained his oppinion that he want to do the right move for the wrong reasons :) this made in many cases the impression of playing nonsens even it was just the correct thing to do. well ... finally it doesnt matter how you get to the right conclusions as long it gets you to the right solutions.

This time our good checkerplay was not enough. poor cubing made us loose the match.

Most interessting Positions during the Match:

first game no moveerror but a very bad takeblunder. it was barly a cube but a clear take
correct decision double/take
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next game the reverse. again good checkerplay without any blunder but a wrong take. finally not so bad because we turned the game and won it which makes the take not correct.
correct decision double/drop
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in the 3th game our first moveblunder. equity loss -0.141
correct move bar/22 20/15
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end of the game a blunder which didnt effected the game as there was coming a correct double/drop anyway.
equity loss -0.141
correct move 13/11 11/6
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i dont know why we dropped this. its a clear take. just 67% winchance and 26% gammonchance
correct decision double/take
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we only can say thx to this double blunder. way too good to double. 82% winchance 34% gammonchance
correct decision too good to double/drop
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well the cube was not they real strengh either :) blunder not to double
correct decision double/drop
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one move later still a blunder not to double 
correct decision double/take
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it was theyr worst game in the match. after the 2 doubleblunders a moveblunder equity loss -0.107
correct move Bar/20
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and the 4th blunder in a raw. equity loss -0.102
correct move 21/9(2)
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alltogether they lost the equity of half a game (0.511) during the last 4 moves and still won the game :)
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another clear cube blunder winchance 66% gammonchance 34%
correct decision double/drop
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a stupid blunder actually. some wrong thinking must have been behind it(i cant remember). there is no advantage in keeping 3 checkers on the 6
correct move 6/4 (4)
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we where thinking about a double. but i thought its too good and dangerous at same time. 
they get us and we loose or we win gammon. i definitly misjugded the gammonchance. double blunder
winchance 68% gammonchance 25%
 correct decision double/drop
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close the same situation and same thought to the previous one. again double blunder
Winchance 75.5% gammonchance 27.5%
correce decision double/drop
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one bad roll after the next but still thought it could be gammon. double blunder
Winchance 78% gammonchance 24%
correct decision double/drop
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finally we lost our faith in the gammon the moment the chance got actually higher. what a misjudgement
doubleblunder again. winchance 91.5% gammonchance 32.7%
correct decision too good to double/drop
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i thought about the right move here. but finally in front with the race we thought its not worth to take a risk. he may hit and cover with a lucky roll and we loose the game. but its a blunder equity loss -0.153
correct move 20/14(2) 13/7(2)
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kind of funny here. for some time they counted the pips. and even in front with pips they decided to stay at 17. blunder equity loss -0.116
correct move 17/11(2)
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interessting choice not to cover the 3. blunder equity loss -0.112
correct move 8/6 8/3
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similar to before. boldini insisted in keeping 3 stones on 8. of course the 3 spot is more valuable then the 2.
blunder equity loss -0.110
correct move 8/3
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this blunder is on me. i thought the house totally open and a blot on 1 there is no danger. i was wrong .... very very wrong. the double 3 joker at next roll proved to me how wrong. we possible lost the match here about my wrong choice. well ... peter agreed with my oppinion but still it was my argumentation. theyr joker would have been a antijoker if we would have moved right.
blunder equity loss -0.274
correct move 10/7 8/7
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euphoric about theyr joker they played towards a gammon and made it.
double blunder winchance 62% gammonchance 39%
correct decision double/drop
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double error and move blunder equityloss -0.238. criticel blunder but unfortunate no consequences.
correct decision double/drop
corect move 7/1 6/4
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interessting blunder. equity loss -0.085. the threat on 22 is bigger then on 7 we thought. additional we attack the blot at 13. with a unlucky roll we maybe get a chance. obvously our thougts where wrong.
correct move bar/21(2) 8/4(2)
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score 8:6 past crofford. scared of theyr permanent jokerrolls we start a kind of chickenplay which looks save but it is not if you look closer. blunder equity loss -0.089
correct move 13/10 13/9
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same here. dangerous situation where we should have taken the initiative.passiv play was deadly here. with this blunder we lost the match. equity loss -0.123
correct move bar/23 6/2
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the final killermove. it looked a big blunder to me. if we hit we may win a gammon and the match.
but analize say it was the best available move. kind of unbelievebel that offering 4 blots is the best move here.
i never would have done this in this situation.
it worked out. we danced and lost. 
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