Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Selman Kiliç Leaguematch played in Istanbul Dalian Club

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Dalian Club 26.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 8,   Selman Kiliç: 11


xg summery:
Richard Lukas Category Selman Kiliç
Intermediate (-0.0271) Total Error Intermediate (-0.0255)
Advanced (-0.0241) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0213)
Casual Player (-0.0413) Cube Play Casual Player (-0.0391)
13.5 Performance Rating 12.7


Richard Lukas Game Per Game Selman Kiliç
Intermediate (-0.0281) Game 1 Intermediate (-0.0316)
Intermediate (-0.0349) Game 2 Expert (-0.0109)
World Champ. (-0.0047) Game 3 Beginner (-0.0452)
Expert (-0.0131) Game 4 Intermediate (-0.0262)
Advanced (-0.0214) Game 5 Casual Player (-0.0355)
Intermediate (-0.0287) Game 6 Expert (-0.0102)
Beginner (-0.0456) Game 7 World Champ. (+0.0000)
Intermediate (-0.0350) Game 8 Advanced (-0.0178)
Casual Player (-0.0354) Game 9 Beginner (-0.0488)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Game 10 Intermediate (-0.0253)
World Champ. (-0.0015) Game 11 Expert (-0.0110)
Distracted (-0.0734) Game 12 Expert (-0.0116)
Advanced (-0.0206) Game 13 Advanced (-0.0230)
Beginner (-0.0579) Game 14 Distracted (-0.0799)
Expert (-0.0140) Game 15 Intermediate (-0.0268)

Snowie summery:
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Selman Kiliç Richard Lukas
Rating beginner beginner
Overall 16,105 14,966
Checker play 10,466 11,186
Double 5,157 1,471
Take 0,482 2,309
Favorite
Selman Kiliç was 53,31% - 46,69% favorite.


Oh my god, what was this? Drugs in the food or wrong moonconstelation? We both are the leaders of the league and when playing each other we play the worst performance of the season. We matched each other in wrong cube decisions and also our checkerplay where not the best. Since i analize my matches i didnt had such a bad performance. with such a perfomance i deserve to loose even my opponent didnt played better.

Most interessting positions during the match:

second move in the match and my first big blunder. there is no explanation for. probably i didnt see. very unusual for me being so unconcentrated and dont see a hit. equity loss -0.306
correct move 24/17
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i think i would have done the same but its a blunder. equity loss -0.134
correct move 13/11 13/8
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did he see a gammon here ? if i get a 6/4 he is in deep trouble. gammonchance just 23% 
double blunder equity loss -0.088
correct decision double/drop
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right the next move double blunder and move error. still playing for gammon he is moving very risky.
no cube equity loss -0.202 move error equity loss -0.026. i rolled 6/1 and won the game.
correct decision double/drop
correct move 8/4 8/2
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another stupid blunder of me i normally dont do. of course closing the 4spot in the house is better.
equity loss -0.147
correct move 10/2 8/4(2)
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cube blunder and move blunder in one. gammonchance close to 0. winchance 71% a clear double.
giving me a possible shot with a 2/6 is also a very unnecessary risk. 
correct decision double/drop
correct move 13/12 9/7 8/7
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next game was a very short one. he droped a take at the 6th move.
correct decision double/take
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well .. very usual move. a little risky if he rolls 5/3 but still i think it is not sooo bad. if he dont hit then i am in very good shape. however rollout say blunder equity loss -0.116
correct move 6/5 24/22
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strange blunder. why ever he did that, i dont know. equity loss -0.276
correct move bar/21 24/23
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interessting that this double is a blunder. it looks pretty good to me. a blot on the 16 and if not a hit then very proper a strong 4 block at my house with 2 foreign checkers in. but analize say blunder 63% winchance, 20% gammonchance.
correct decision no double/take
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i didnt hit but got the 4 block i was looking for he is rolling a joker and kind of waste it.
blunder equity loss -0.148
correct move bar/23 9/7 6/4(2)
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i guess when he reads my blog he will shake his head about his blunders like me about mine.
equity loss -0.200
correct move 8/4 6/4
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like always. if i dont close the 5 its a blunder :) but i hate when my opponent covers the 7
equity loss -0.091
correct move bar/22 24/21 8/5(2)
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right the next move ... shaking my head .. no need to talk about this nonsens
blunder equity loss -0.143
correct move bar/24 22/20
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strike !! 3 blunders in a raw.doesnt matter where if i offer the hit on 1 or on 13 and 2 checkers on the bar can lead to a big advantage. equity loss -0.347
correct move 7/3 3/1
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this is crazy and i for sure wouldnt have done the correct move here. but it would have been the only chance to turn the game. if i dont hit and he can cover the 7 or if i hit and he can hit back. however his move a blunder equity loss -0.148
correct move 13/7 13/9
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with 3/1 and 22 he got this position. 7/1 in front i didnt wanted to risk a gammon and droped
with still a 36% chance of winning the game i should have taken.
correct decision double/take
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again one of the very obvious blunders. equity loss -0.251
correct move 8/4 6/4
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very bad. a good opportunity to attck both of the 5 spots. very bad blunder. equity loss -0.284
correct move bar/20 6/5
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i guess being 7/2 behind made him desperate and he doubled here. its just a 57% winchance and of course a blunder. equity loss -0.114
correct decision no double/take
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just one pip behind and 2 blots in his house. i thought its a opportunity to run and make his life difficulty for his checkers on the 9. it looks pretty convinient to me. analize say blunder. equity loss -0.108
correct move 13/6
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kind of funny what he is doing with his nice 4/4. blunder equity loss -0.211
correct move 8/4(2) 6/2(2)
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i tend to disagree but as we all know arguing with a rollout is pretty useless. my life with the checkers on 16 would be difficulty with the correct move here. equity loss -0.092
correct move 13/10 13/7
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i missed a good double/take here. would he have taken it ?
but i was scared with my checkers on the 16 and he stands pretty strong on 12 and 11. and i lost 3 games in a raw which scratch on the confidence. next roll i hitted him and it got to a double/drop
correct decision double/take
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he did the same mistake in the coming game. missed the double take and moved a blunder. next roll it was a drop equity loss -0.086
correct decision double/take
correct move 24/20 6/5
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very very bad. a no double/take situation and i drop it. the double a blunder and the drop a blunder.
correct decision no double/take
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interessting blunder. i would have done the same move. but he maybe missed a gammonchance
equityloss -0.115
correct move 13/1(2)
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i really wonder why it is so much better to hit on 14 insteed of 18. if he hits back then i prefere to have his blot on the 14. much higher chance to hit him there. blunder equity loss -0.093
correct move bar/14
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he finish again with a no double/take blunder and win the game/match with 4 doublerolls in the bearoff
correct decision no double/take-redouble

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Erhan Dogrusöz Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 13.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 11,   Erhan Dogrusöz: 7


xg summery:
Richard Lukas Category Erhan Dogrusöz
Advanced (-0.0211) Total Error Advanced (-0.0190)
Advanced (-0.0232) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0172)
Expert (-0.0112) Cube Play Advanced (-0.0206)
10.6 Performance Rating 9.5


Richard Lukas Game Per Game Erhan Dogrusöz
World Champ. (-0.0030) Game 1 Advanced (-0.0177)
Distracted (-0.0877) Game 2 Expert (-0.0104)
Advanced (-0.0202) Game 3 Expert (-0.0112)
World Champ. (-0.0042) Game 4 Advanced (-0.0186)
World Champ. (-0.0032) Game 5 Intermediate (-0.0340)
Expert (-0.0112) Game 6 Intermediate (-0.0250)
Intermediate (-0.0341) Game 7 World Champ. (-0.0022)
Intermediate (-0.0294) Game 8 Intermediate (-0.0308)


Snowie summery:
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Richard Lukas Erhan Dogrusöz
Rating intermediate advanced
Overall 10,308 7,459
Checker play 9,475 6,714
Double 0,337 0,672
Take 0,496 0,072
Favorite
Erhan Dogrusöz was 67,99% - 32,01% favorite.

this is the first match since ages i am winning not being favorit. performancerating over 10 makes me not really happy but i think my real rating is a bit better because there is a very doubtful blunder in the analize at end of the match. being much better in cubeplay made me finally win the match.

most interessting Positions during the match:

he starts with a unusual blunder for him. making towers is never a good idea. equity loss -0.092
correct move 15/11 13/10
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then a double blunder just 4 pips in front. but of course he wins the game :)
correct decission no double/take
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a big jokerroll but after the unlucky start not brave enough to use it. i thought if he hits me back i am gammon so i didnt hit on 5. big blunder equity loss -0.281
correct move bar/23(3) 7/5
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not closing the 5 is nearly always a blunder but i thought hitting here is more valuable and the chance of closing the 5 in the next roll is very high. but looking now closer into the situation makes it very clear. i dont need the 4th checker. a block of 4 would have been much better here. equity loss -0.314 !!! no wonder i have such a bad checkerplay rating this time
correct move 11/5 6/5
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temporary insanity... disracted somehow ... i dont know what happend in this game to me. probably rolling such a antijoker made me crazy here :) of course it would have been better to move from 11. this blunder made me loose gammon equity loss -0.245
correct move 11/8 7/1
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6:0 and i was really pissed :) but this often helps me to refocus and playing more concentrated and from now on it was running better. a blunder he does more often. its importend to split the 1 spot as soon you can especially when there are blots in front of you. equity loss -.101
correct move 24/23 13/11
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hmm interessting. i always did this move. picture saved, i will not do again :)
 blunder equity loss -0.097
correct move 9/4 6/4
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i know .. i know. hitting in such a situation looks always so scray. if he hits back i loose all my advantage.
but if not then there is a big gammonchance. especially being 6:0 behind i should have played more agressive. blunder equity loss -0.130
correct move 24/22 3/2
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6:1 still not very promising. but now he starts to make mistakes. closing the 4 is much more valuable then closing the 7. better for the race and better for the position. blunder equity loss -0.122
correct move 10/4 6/4
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just running 22 pips behind is not such a good idea. better to build a house and hoping of a hit.
blunder equity loss -0.122
correct move 22/14 8/4
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3:6 looks a bit better. and he keeps making mistakes. kind of desperate hit :) maybe he hoped i would dance and he get a shot on the 7. but the probability of dancing is small. however, lucky him i danced :) blunder equity loss -0.113
correct move bar/22 24/22
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next move next blunder :) he gets the shot and is not shooting. equity loss -0.090
correct move 23/22 8/3
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another dangerous hit. blunder equity loss -0.172
correct move 23/22 13/8
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what he was waiting for here i dont know.if i roll a double 6 i win the game and the gammonchance is small.
cube blunder
correct decission double/drop
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3:7 its getting more and more dangerous to loose the match. 
again his classic blunder with the 2/1 equity loss -0.155
correct move 13/11 24/23
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interessting position. i guess i would have moved the same blunder. equity loss -0.095
blocking the 6 for my checker on the 4 looks convinient somehow. on the other hand he have 2 open checkers insteed of one which can get him in trouble as my house is not too bad.
correct move 17/8
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not a blunder but still an error. a cube he better would have droped :)
correct decission double/drop
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also very interessting. why this is such a big blunder i dont understand. with my hit i have a big gammonopportunity. not hitting just give him the chance to get some lucky rolls or just move into his house which lower the chance of gammon. however, also a rollout didnt changed the fact that it is a blunder. equity loss -.174 !!
correct move bar/20 21/16 8/3(2)
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as there is no chance of covering the 4 in the next move it would have been better not to move there.  blunder equity loss -0.124 i made the gammon and suddenly we are even 7:7
correct move 24/22 17/11
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nice joker but moved wrong. covering a 3th spot looked good to me. maybe he dance. but looking at it now it was useless because i reduce my opportunitys at my next roll. blunder equity loss -0.110
correct move 24/16 13/9(2)
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why ... why the hell why ? i dont get it. if he gets in, then close to every roll would hit me not to mention disasterrolls like 11 then he would catch probably 4 checkers. not only i lower the chances of getting hitted with my move but also the opportunity to cover the 5 spot in the next roll looks very nice. also in a rollout my move was a blunder. equity loss -0.135
correct move 21/16 13/9
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score 7:7. i thought long about if i should cube or not. looked a though decission to me doubling  for the match. if i dont hit i am probably screwed. it suprised me how right i was doing it and how wrong he was taking. it was not even a close take. equity loss -0.131
correct decission double/drop
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finally a last bearoff blunder i to 100% disagree. this must be a glitch in the rollout analize function. or do you see a reason why i should risk to open a blot when i roll a double. score is 7:7 the game is doubled. i dont need a gammon. even if he roll 4 times 66 i am not concerned of loosing the game. in my oppinion it would be a blunder to bear off the 3. wouldnt be the first time i loose a game like this with a stupid hit.
doubtful correct move 3/off
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