Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Richard Lukas & Peter Urbantschitsch vs. Popesko's Double Consulting

European Championship 2011 Velden
Double Consulting
1. Round
9 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas&Peter Urbantschitch: 9,   Popesko's: 7



xg summery: 
Popesko's Category Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschitsch
Advanced (-0.0190) Total Error Advanced (-0.0151)
Advanced (-0.0200) Checker Play Expert (-0.0118)
Advanced (-0.0158) Cube Play Advanced (-0.0237)
9.5 Performance Rating 7.6

Popesko's Game Per Game Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschitsch
World Class (-0.0073) Game 1 Expert (-0.0104)
Expert (-0.0124) Game 2 Advanced (-0.0211)
Expert (-0.0113) Game 3 Expert (-0.0102)
Expert (-0.0121) Game 4 World Champ. (-0.0013)
World Class (-0.0072) Game 5 World Champ. (-0.0007)
Expert (-0.0145) Game 6 World Champ. (-0.0037)
Advanced (-0.0217) Game 7 Expert (-0.0130)
Advanced (-0.0210) Game 8 Advanced (-0.0150)
World Champ. (-0.0047) Game 9 Casual Player (-0.0366)
Expert (-0.0142) Game 10 Intermediate (-0.0349)
Distracted (-0.0910) Game 11 Advanced (-0.0212)
Intermediate (-0.0257) Game 12 Casual Player (-0.0411)
Advanced (-0.0240) Game 13 Advanced (-0.0191)
Beginner (-0.0605) Game 14 Intermediate (-0.0319)
World Champ. (-0.0043) Game 15 Expert (-0.0100)


Snowie summery: 
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Popesko's Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschi
Rating intermediate advanced
Overall 11,405 8,409
Checker play 9,158 4,289
Double 2,247 2,971
Take 0,000 1,149
Favorite
Richard Lukas-Peter Urbantschi was 62,54% - 37,46% favorite.

Now it get serious. Peter and me start fighting at double consulting. Advanced performancerating of 7.6 is ok for the start. A close but clean win.

Most interessting Position during the match:

Looks like our opponents was disracted a bit :) at 3th move they move just 3 times 2 with a double 2. a blunder of course equity loss -0.095. but still they win the game.
correct move 8/4 7/5 6/4
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well ... i like targeting the 20 spot if there is not anything much better. analize say blunder equity loss -0.088
correct move 13/9 8/3
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i said so :) but peter very much wanted the save point so i accepted and we doubled.
correct decision to good to double/drop
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69% chance to win gammonchance 24.5% of course we should have double here.
double blunder equity loss -0.083
correct decision double/drop
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36 pips behind we thankful appriciate the opportunity to steal theyr pips :)
Blunder equity loss -0.095
correct move bar/23 13/7
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we would have taken the double for sure and loose 2 points.
correct decision double/take
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next roll the double came but again a blunder. with 79% winchance and 30% gammonchance too good.
correct decision too good to double/drop
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a very hugh blunder they did here. equity loss -0.200. a landingpoint for theyr checker in our house on the 16 would have been very importend.
correct move 22/16(2) 10/4(2)
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i very much would like to know why they moved from 8.  equity loss -0.084
correct move 10/4 6/1
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it was always a piece of work to convince peter to double :) 7 pips in front, one checker out already. 81% winchance and we are not doubeling !!!!  god thx they didnt rolled a high double. 
correct decision double/drop
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So far so good. Score 4:4 and peter starts with a usual move i usually dont do but didnt interfere. equity loss -0.106
correct move 8/2 6/2
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and another one. but this time i agreed. equity loss -0.093. i dont see the big advantage to hit on 4 insteed on 3. he may hit back 2 checkers which can end very unconfortable.
correct move bar/22 6/4
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a very hugh blunder of us. actually i was the force behind this move. i thought with the blot on 22 it is worth the risk as it looked very promising to me to be in nice position withhin the next roll if they dont roll a big joker. but obviously i was wrong even we got into the position i hoped for. equity loss -0.253
correct move 13/4
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in this game we competed each other with blunders :)
equity loss -0.148
correct move bar/22 13/10 8/5(2)
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even 10 pips behind i felt very strong. i am sure peter was against the double :)
winchance was 66%. not too bad but the analize say not enough to double.
correct decision no double/take
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26 pips behind we wanted to stay in theyr way. moving away from 9 came not to my mind. if they roll a double 5 we are dead.  but as always its a blunder not to close the 5. equity loss -0.096
correct move 24/16 9/5(2)
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dammit... it was me forcing peter to hit 2 checkers. he was about to make the right move. but it made us win the game :) equity loss -0.191
correct move 23/21 13/9
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a record bunder. equity loss -0448 !!! followed with a double/drop. i wouldnt have doubled if he moves correct i think.
correct move 21/15(2) 13/1
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Score 7:5, slowlie we get confident :) another little blunder of our opponent.
equity loss -0.101
correct move bar/21 6/4(2)
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closing the 5 or closing the 7. it took them some minutes to decide to make the wrong choice. always the 5 is the correct one :) equity loss -0.116
correct move 11/5 6/5
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3 blunders in a raw. but to be honest i would have done the same here. equity loss -0.117
correct move 23/21 11/7
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what chicken we are. as favorites in the game we drop the double :) interessting here is that we are 53% favorite in the game and the double is correct. why ever we are favorites here, i really dont see it.
they hit a second checker or close a 4th spot in theyr house or both with a lucky 33 which would bring us in gammondanger. with a gammon we would loose the match. i still think it was the right decission despite the analize result i normally always accept.
correct decision double/take
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chickenplay :) a 46% gammonchance and we get doubled. gladly we refused :)
correct decision too good to double/drop
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ouff score 7:7 a never ending thriller. and suddenly they get desperate.
a very funny opening move. blunder equity loss -0.224
correct move 24/20 13/8
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and after the desperate start they are not brave enough to go on with it. we gladly acepted that.
blunder again. equity loss -0.259
correct move bar/16
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i totally underestimated the gammonchance here. 42,5% !!! we where happy to get into the crofford game and doubled.
 correct decision too good to double/drop
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one little blunder away from victory. equity loss -0.125. i actually thought it is much stronger to have 3 checkers on 6,4 and 3 to be in good position of hitting if he leave the house with one checker. with closing the 2 i loose my material in my house and additional get in danger to get hit.
correct move 8/2 4/2
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match won 9:7    ready for round 2 :)
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