Monday, March 14, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Serkan Koc Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 4,  Serkan Koc  :12

xg summery: 
Richard Lukas Category Serkan Koç
Advanced (-0.0219) Total Error Advanced (-0.0180)
Advanced (-0.0181) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0183)
Intermediate (-0.0291) Cube Play Advanced (-0.0159)
11.0 Performance Rating 9.0

Richard Lukas Game Per Game Serkan Koç
Expert (-0.0104) Game 1 Casual Player (-0.0352)
Advanced (-0.0231) Game 2 Intermediate (-0.0346)
Advanced (-0.0247) Game 3 Advanced (-0.0231)
Beginner (-0.0544) Game 4 World Champ. (+0.0000)
Advanced (-0.0154) Game 5 World Champ. (-0.0021)
Beginner (-0.0604) Game 6 Casual Player (-0.0393)
Casual Player (-0.0376) Game 7 Advanced (-0.0173)
Expert (-0.0107) Game 8 World Champ. (-0.0043)

Snowie summery: 
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Serkan Koç Richard Lukas
Rating intermediate beginner
Overall 10,737 12,765
Checker play 9,435 6,937
Double 1,302 5,828
Take
Average Luck
0,000
16.887
0,000
-16.887
Favorite
Serkan Koç was 52,00% - 48,00% favorite.

Awful played, one of the rare deserved looses even the performance of my opponent wasnt stunning either.

most interessting Positions during the match:

with just 5 pips in front i didnt felt confortable enough to double. if i dont hit i easy could loose the game so i thought. but analize say its a 74% winchance 1.39% gammonchance
correct decission double/take.
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as usual my blunders are mostly doubleblunders. here i thought it is too good to double.
73.58% winchance 27.91% gammonchance.
even the winchance is lesser then the sample before the correct decission here is double/drop about the gammondanger. 
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a blunder Serkan is doing several times during this match. Splitting the 24 is importend.
he loose 0.227 equity
right move 24/23 11/6
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my next blunder of course a doubleblunder again. i allways feel unconfortable with doubeling on the bar.
being unlucky as i am usually, i can loose it gammon.
but its a 72.53% winchance and 31.98% gammonchance. nearly too good to double
correct decission double/drop.
but finally i was right with my feeling .... i lost it gammon
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this time a take blunder. it looked even too good to double to me and i was happy he doubled.
but i was wrong. 70.71% winchance with 22.65% gammonchance for brown. 6-4 behind is a take.
correct decission double/take
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score 4-8 and the cube on my side. i thought this is a chance to turn the match. the chance to win the match from 4-10 is very little anyway and when i hit here i have a good chance to win the game.
so i did my last blunder in doubeling back. even i tend to disagree here. my chance to win here is 36% and i would be fully back in the match with a score of 8-8. the chance to win from 4-10 is close to nothing.

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