Thursday, March 17, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Sedat Sorgüven Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 12,  Sedat Sorgüven  :5

xg summery: 
Richard Lukas Category Sedat Sorgüven
Advanced (-0.0159) Total Error Advanced (-0.0192)
World Class (-0.0092) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0187)
Distracted (-0.0616) Cube Play Advanced (-0.0203)
7.9 Performance Rating 9.6


Richard Lukas Game Per Game Sedat Sorgüven
Intermediate (-0.0295) Game 1 Expert (-0.0106)
World Class (-0.0067) Game 2 World Champ. (-0.0046)
Advanced (-0.0223) Game 3 World Class (-0.0090)
World Champ. (-0.0029) Game 4 World Champ. (-0.0040)
Advanced (-0.0176) Game 5 Casual Player (-0.0366)
Intermediate (-0.0253) Game 6 Intermediate (-0.0289)

  snowie summery: 
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Richard Lukas Sedat Sorgüven
Rating advanced intermediate
Overall 7,270 11,377
Checker play 4,420 8,200
Double 2,039 1,834
Take
 Average Luck
0,811
 17.694
1,343
 -17.694
Favorite
Richard Lukas was 63,12% - 36,88% favorite.

once again i messed up my rating with the cube. worldclass checkerplay and awful cubing.
but finally a deserved win with a better rating then Sedat.

most interessting positions during the match:

right with my first move a blunder ... argh :)
actually a standard opening but a blunder when the 20 is closed. i was not aware of this.

right move 24/23 13/11
__________________________________________________________________
after the 3th move in the matcha takeblunder. didnt looked a drop to me.
right decission double/drop
____________________________________________________________
i guess he didnt looked careful enough to move this blunder
equityloss -0.082
best move bar/21 13/1
_______________________________________________________________
and my usual problem. 13 pips in front of course a doubleblunder.
right decission redouble/drop
________________________________________________________________
well best option here is to hit for sure. equityloss -0.090. but interessting is the big difference inbetween the 3th and 4th option. what justify the difference of 0.051 equity ?
best move 13/5
2) 8/5 6/1   -0.012
3) 24/16     -0.039
4) 23/15     -0.090
_____________________________________________________________________
looked a drop to me. 11 pips behind. chance to win the game just 23.95%
interessting that this is a drop-blunder
correct decission double/take
______________________________________________________________________
a really big blunder i did here. equityloss -0.216
i cant see the big problem. i get a very strong block. his house is totally open so a hit also dont hurt.
but also a rollout on the position gave a clear result. 
correct move 24/16 8/4(2)
_________________________________________________________________________
would have done the same blunder. equityloss -0.138
correct move 24/16
__________________________________________________________________________
another big blunder. wonder why he did that. this move made my life easier.
equityloss -0.196
correct move 13/7
____________________________________________________________________________
i just never get it right with the cube. this looked way to good to double for me. a 33.75% chance for gammon. but rollout say cubeerror its a double/drop

__________________________________________________________________________
finally i doubled correctly and sedat took the drop. blunder of course and of course he won the game :)
this game can be so crazy.
correct decission double/drop
________________________________________________________________________
big blunder to hit on 1 ensteed of 3. equityloss -0.225
best move 13/9 8/3
______________________________________________________________________
another suprise was this. it looked pretty good to me so i doubled but its a big blunder.
correct decission no double/take
____________________________________________________________________
not only i mess up the cube :) 2 blunder in one :) he missed doubeling back here.... and did a move blunder
correct decission redouble/take
best move 23/17 5/4

Richard Lukas vs. Mehmet Güven Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 11,  Mehmet Güven  :9

xg summery: 

Richard Lukas Category Mehmet Güven
Advanced (-0.0235) Total Error Advanced (-0.0223)
Advanced (-0.0220) Checker Play Expert (-0.0139)
Intermediate (-0.0271) Cube Play Distracted (-0.0720)
11.8 Performance Rating 11.1



Richard Lukas Game Per Game Mehmet Güven
Beginner (-0.0498) Game 1 Expert (-0.0117)
Intermediate (-0.0341) Game 2 Advanced (-0.0230)
Advanced (-0.0160) Game 3 Advanced (-0.0184)
World Champ. (-0.0042) Game 4 Casual Player (-0.0425)
Advanced (-0.0162) Game 5 World Class (-0.0091)
Intermediate (-0.0321) Game 6 Advanced (-0.0242)
Distracted (-0.1311) Game 7 Intermediate (-0.0300)
Advanced (-0.0216) Game 8 World Class (-0.0062)
World Class (-0.0056) Game 9 World Class (-0.0078)
Expert (-0.0134) Game 10 World Class (-0.0071)
Advanced (-0.0210) Game 11 World Class (-0.0077)
World Champ. (-0.0010) Game 12 World Champ. (+0.0000)
World Champ. (-0.0024) Game 13 Distracted (-0.0761)

snowie summery:
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Richard Lukas Mehmet Güven
Rating beginner intermediate
Overall 15,153 10,601
Checker play 10,543 5,841
Double 3,220 4,760
Take
 Average Luck
1,390
 5.886
0,000
 -5.886
Favorite
Mehmet Güven was 53,38% - 46,62% favorite.

awful ..  both of us a performancerating over 11, not a win to be proud of.
a competition who makes more blunders.

Most interessting Positions during the Match:

my first blunder just with the 4th move in the match. actually i dont see why it is so extreme bad.
equityloss -0.095. there are 3 moves better then my blunder.
right move 24/20
2.) 24/20 11/8   -0.028
3.) 24/20 8/5     -0.048
____________________________________________________________________________
i so much liked the massive block in his house. my move is a blunder with a equityloss of -0.212 !!!
as longer i look at it as more i am in difficulty to accept.
right move 21/20 21/15
_________________________________________________________________________
very bad blunder of mehmet. equityloss -0.160 nearly every other possible move is better.

right move 13/7 8/6
2) 13/7 4/2    -0.005
3) 8/2 4/2      -0.005
4) 13/11 8/2   -0.013
_____________________________________________________________________
as usual i messed up my rating with the cube.
i didnt felt good with 8 checkers on the 6 and only slightly in front with pips.
but not doubeling was an error
correct decission double/take
______________________________________________________________________
not much different to the position before. still so much stones on the 6.
but here it was allready a blunder not to double.
correct decission double/take
took me 4 more moves to double ... grrr
__________________________________________________________________
big blunder .. equityloss -0.136 there are 5 better moves

correct decission  21/20 21/15

___________________________________________________________________
count the pips count the pips count the pips ... 8 pips in front .. of course a doubleblunder
correct decission double/take
_____________________________________________________________________
very interessting blunder. right move here look very crazy
equityloss -0.084
best move 8/3 5/1
______________________________________________________________________
i really have 31% chance to win the game here and should have taken the cube.
it looked a clear drop to me. i thought it is maybe about the score of 2-7 and checked it with score 0-0 with the same result. its just a take.

____________________________________________________________________
from being 2-8 behind i made it to 7-9. i guess this made him a bit desperate with a double in this position :)
a real killer blunder which cost him the match equityloss -1.628

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Haluk Özdamar Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 12,  Haluk Özdamar  :8

xg summery: 
Richard Lukas Category Haluk Özdamar
Expert (-0.0140) Total Error Advanced (-0.0165)
Advanced (-0.0154) Checker Play Expert (-0.0119)
World Class (-0.0076) Cube Play Intermediate (-0.0316)
7.0 Performance Rating 8.3


Richard Lukas Game Per Game Haluk Özdamar
Advanced (-0.0171) Game 1 Casual Player (-0.0431)
Expert (-0.0146) Game 2 Intermediate (-0.0281)
World Champ. (-0.0038) Game 3 Casual Player (-0.0357)
Intermediate (-0.0273) Game 4 Expert (-0.0101)
World Class (-0.0066) Game 5 World Class (-0.0072)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Game 6 Wow! (+0.0010)
Advanced (-0.0168) Game 7 Expert (-0.0122)
Advanced (-0.0217) Game 8 Intermediate (-0.0307)
Expert (-0.0123) Game 9 World Class (-0.0053)

snowie summery 

Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Richard Lukas Haluk Özdamar
Rating advanced intermediate
Overall 7,364 9,819
Checker play 6,938 5,795
Double 0,403 1,820
Take
Average Luck
0,023
 -1.865
2,204
 1.865
Favorite
Richard Lukas was 52,62% - 47,38% favorite.

A win with minus luck is somehow satisfying. during the match the rolls drived me crazy :)

 most interessting positions during the match:

I was not sure if it isnt too good to double but it was correct. i was double correct because haluk took the clear drop considered as takeblunder
correct decission double/drop
____________________________________________________________________________
33 as possible disasterroll i thought better not to hit. but it was a big blunder -0.242 equityloss. probably missed the gammon about not hitting.
correct move 18/15 7/3
__________________________________________________________________________
about this blunder i lost the game. 0.083 equityloss to be honest i was not even considering 10/8
24/22 was in my mind.
correct move 13/9 10/8
_________________________________________________________________________
of course he rolled 6/3 but after hitting back he missed to double considered as blunder
like me he seems to be unconfortable with cubing on the bar. equityloss 0.083
correct decission double/drop
___________________________________________________________________
he dance on the bar and again missed to double. interessting at this doublblunder the equityloss is much higher as the doubleblunder before. equityloss -0.196
correct decission double/drop
____________________________________________________________________
finally he stopped dancing and doubled. error again to good. equityloss -0.058
correct decission Too good to double/drop
______________________________________________________________________
no error here but interessting. i thought taking my double here is a blunder. 
correct decission double/take
_______________________________________________________________________
a blunder with equityloss of -0.152. well i tend to disagree and did a rollout but it didnt changed much. rollout reduced the equityloss to -0.124 still a blunder.
correct move 20/8 13/7(2)
___________________________________________________________________________
also here i dont see the reason for my blunder. equityloss 0.146
only 22 would be a disaster. all other rolls are just fine.
right move 24/20 7/2
____________________________________________________________________________
just the next move a similar situation. i dont see what to be afraid of when hitting both checkers.
but again blunder. a big equityloss 0.229
right move 20/16 8/2
_____________________________________________________________________________
i probably would have done the same but its a big blunder. equityloss -0.192
right move 6/4 4/3
___________________________________________________________________________
after coming back from 8-1 to 8-8
this blunder of him was the start of me winning the match with a gammon. 
right move 8/2 3/2

Monday, March 14, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Serkan Koc Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011

Leaguematch played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 6.3.2011
11 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 4,  Serkan Koc  :12

xg summery: 
Richard Lukas Category Serkan Koç
Advanced (-0.0219) Total Error Advanced (-0.0180)
Advanced (-0.0181) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0183)
Intermediate (-0.0291) Cube Play Advanced (-0.0159)
11.0 Performance Rating 9.0

Richard Lukas Game Per Game Serkan Koç
Expert (-0.0104) Game 1 Casual Player (-0.0352)
Advanced (-0.0231) Game 2 Intermediate (-0.0346)
Advanced (-0.0247) Game 3 Advanced (-0.0231)
Beginner (-0.0544) Game 4 World Champ. (+0.0000)
Advanced (-0.0154) Game 5 World Champ. (-0.0021)
Beginner (-0.0604) Game 6 Casual Player (-0.0393)
Casual Player (-0.0376) Game 7 Advanced (-0.0173)
Expert (-0.0107) Game 8 World Champ. (-0.0043)

Snowie summery: 
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Serkan Koç Richard Lukas
Rating intermediate beginner
Overall 10,737 12,765
Checker play 9,435 6,937
Double 1,302 5,828
Take
Average Luck
0,000
16.887
0,000
-16.887
Favorite
Serkan Koç was 52,00% - 48,00% favorite.

Awful played, one of the rare deserved looses even the performance of my opponent wasnt stunning either.

most interessting Positions during the match:

with just 5 pips in front i didnt felt confortable enough to double. if i dont hit i easy could loose the game so i thought. but analize say its a 74% winchance 1.39% gammonchance
correct decission double/take.
_____________________________________________________________________________

as usual my blunders are mostly doubleblunders. here i thought it is too good to double.
73.58% winchance 27.91% gammonchance.
even the winchance is lesser then the sample before the correct decission here is double/drop about the gammondanger. 
___________________________________________________________________________________

a blunder Serkan is doing several times during this match. Splitting the 24 is importend.
he loose 0.227 equity
right move 24/23 11/6
______________________________________________________________________________

my next blunder of course a doubleblunder again. i allways feel unconfortable with doubeling on the bar.
being unlucky as i am usually, i can loose it gammon.
but its a 72.53% winchance and 31.98% gammonchance. nearly too good to double
correct decission double/drop.
but finally i was right with my feeling .... i lost it gammon
______________________________________________________________________

this time a take blunder. it looked even too good to double to me and i was happy he doubled.
but i was wrong. 70.71% winchance with 22.65% gammonchance for brown. 6-4 behind is a take.
correct decission double/take
_________________________________________________________________________

score 4-8 and the cube on my side. i thought this is a chance to turn the match. the chance to win the match from 4-10 is very little anyway and when i hit here i have a good chance to win the game.
so i did my last blunder in doubeling back. even i tend to disagree here. my chance to win here is 36% and i would be fully back in the match with a score of 8-8. the chance to win from 4-10 is close to nothing.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Richard Lukas vs. Mustafa Ali at Yakin Takip tournament

Yakin Takip tournament played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 3.3.2011
fourth of 4 matches
7 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 7,  Mustafa Ali  :1

xg summery: 
Richard Lukas Category Mustafa Ali
Advanced (-0.0197) Total Error Beginner (-0.0510)
Advanced (-0.0153) Checker Play Beginner (-0.0554)
Beginner (-0.0505) Cube Play Casual Player (-0.0398)
9.8 Performance Rating 25.5

Richard Lukas Game Per Game Mustafa Ali
Advanced (-0.0243) Game 1 Distracted (-0.0739)
Expert (-0.0145) Game 2 Distracted (-0.1016)
Casual Player (-0.0391) Game 3 Distracted (-0.0797)
Expert (-0.0130) Game 4 Distracted (-0.0676)
Advanced (-0.0154) Game 5 Expert (-0.0126)
World Champ. (-0.0047) Game 6 Advanced (-0.0229)


snowie summery:
Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player Richard Lukas Mustafa Ali
Rating intermediate novice
Overall 11,712 29,971
Checker play 7,964 23,239
Double 3,748 3,873
Take 0,000 2,859
Favorite
Richard Lukas was 85,99% - 14,01% favorite.

allways difficulty to play good against a beginner. i barely kept my performancerating below 10.

most interessting positions during the match:

a double/drop position. good he didnt doubled because i would have taken
_________________________________________________________________________
a really big blunder i played here. equityloss of -0.282
it dont look so bad to me.good gammonchance if he dance and not a disaster when he hit.
but also a rollout didnt changed the fact that it is a blunder
right move 21/14
___________________________________________________________________________
he danced and i saw my chance for the gammon. but huh ? doubleblunder !
67.49% chance to win with 37.83% chance for gammon.
right decission double/drop

Richard Lukas vs.Haluk Yorgancioglu at Yakin Takip tournament

Yakin Takip tournament played in Istanbul Chops Cafe 3.3.2011
third of 4 matches
7 pts match, Score is  Richard Lukas: 7,  Haluk Yorgancioglu  :0


xg summery: 
Richard Lukas Category Haluk Yorgancioglu
World Class (-0.0089) Total Error Intermediate (-0.0279)
World Class (-0.0073) Checker Play Intermediate (-0.0296)
Advanced (-0.0181) Cube Play Expert (-0.0127)
3.3 Performance Rating 14.0

Game Per Game
Expert (-0.0148) Game 1 World Class (-0.0058)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Game 2 Intermediate (-0.0330)
World Class (-0.0066) Game 3 Casual Player (-0.0421)

Snowie summery: 

Match simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player
Richard Lukas
Haluk Yorgancioglu
Rating
intermediate
intermediate
Overall
9,541
12,068
Checker play
8,530
12,068
Double
1,011
0,000
Take
Average Luck
0,000
35.603
0,000
-35.603
Favorite
Richard Lukas was 52,51% - 47,49% favorite.

another very strange snowie result. like snowie would have analized another match.

most interessting postitions during the match:

i start with a doubleblunder. i know its useless to disagree to a rollout but still a blunder ?
maybe the cube is a bit early ... but we are at the beginning of the match and i want a take and not a drop.
2 rolls later i it would have been a double/drop.
correct decission no double/take
_______________________________________________________________________
just some rolls later i am again in difficulty to accept my blunder
closing 2 spots in my house could lead to a gammon if he dance a bit. also moving in seems to be easy when 4 and 3 is covered. only a double 6 could be a problem but this justify the blunder ?
doesnt the right board look stronger ? well again ... arguing with a rollout is useless the left board have 0.093 more equity
________________________________________________________________________
first 2 games haluk had no blunder but the 3th game he messed up. not hitting here cost him -0.186 equity
right move 13/10 13/7
_________________________________________________________________________
some moves later a interessting blunder. wouldnt have done the right move either i think.
  -0118 equityloss
right move 11/5 7/3... the risk is not much higher but the possible gain is
_________________________________________________________________________
right the next move a extremeblunder :) equityloss of -0395 !!!
in just 2 moves he wasted over 0.500 equity and i am suddenly in favorit position
right move bar/23 9/3
_____________________________________________________________________
i think out of desperation this blunder happend after the beautyful blitzsituation disappeared
right move 23/22 21/16
_____________________________________________________________________
then a stupid blunder of me. dont know what i was thinking of course i should cover the 5
right move bar/22 11/5 8/5
____________________________________________________________________
this here is really interessting. considered as blunder with a loss of -0.133. first moment i accepted .... closing 8 and 7 did not came to my mind. my bad i should at least have considered. but as longer i looked at it as lesser i could believe. if he can take the 1 point then i am in deep trouble till the end of the bearoff.
which would have happend because he rolled 31 and 61 within the next 2 rolls.
i did a 5000 try rollout and the first time since i use extremegammon i proved xg+ wrong.  with +0.042 equity insteed of -0.133 my move was better.
wrong xgroller move 17/7 13/8 12/7